S&P Global Predicts Flat Industrial Commodity Prices Amid Trade Barriers in 2026

Industrial commodity prices are expected to remain largely flat throughout 2026, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence’s February Commodity Price Watch report. The Materials Price Index (MPI) bottomed in Q2 2025 and is projected to hover near year-earlier levels by Q2 2026, with no overarching upward or downward trend across categories. Pockets of oversupply in areas like crude oil contrast with tight fundamentals elsewhere, leading to spending levels similar to 2025 despite varying regional dynamics.​

Extreme regionality now defines commodity markets due to protectionism and logistics disruptions, shifting away from historical global uniformity. Crude oil faces a global supply surplus of nearly 1 million barrels per day, pushing Brent prices to $63 per barrel in Q1 2026 amid US-Iran tensions, before likely easing. Steel remains oversupplied globally, but high import barriers in the US and EU keep prices elevated, while Asia sees slow rises from low bases amid idle capacity.​

Aluminum and copper prices stay high on tight supply, tariff uncertainties, and speculation, though upward pressures are waning with rising inventories. Benzene derivatives saw upward revisions tied to crude oil spikes, while North American ethylene dipped due to softer natural gas. Demand weakness in the EU, US, and China offsets growth in India and Southeast Asia, with mills restraining output to manage surpluses.​

Geopolitical risks, including potential Venezuelan export growth and India’s Russian crude import halt, add volatility. Buyers must navigate rising trade barriers beyond the US, as global protectionism intensifies. This forecast underscores cautious procurement strategies for industries reliant on these commodities in a fragmented market.​